Re: Peak oil
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Once we hit the top of the bell curve, we will see prices begin to rise.
[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, we have already seen 500% rises. Huberts curve has been very accurate so far. Are we at the top yet?
....
The oil companies have vastly scaled back exploration, restated reserves downwards, and diversified into solar energy, (BP is the second biggest in the world) and the US hasnt built a new refinery in 3 decades. The tar sands in Canada arent economcally viable...or they would have been tapped by now. ...
Bingo
[/ QUOTE ]
Your post doesn't make sense. Oil prices are up 500% yet oil companies are cutting back on exploration?
The reality is that oil is as cheap as it ever has been, and has been getting cheaper over time. You are probably confused by U.S. "gas" prices, which aren't so cheap.
The reason that oil has recently gotten expensive in the U.S. has nothing to do with supply, it's caused by the declining value of the U.S. dollar and increased gas taxes over the last thirty years. Oil prices in Euros haven't changed much. As long as we run big deficits, our currency is likely to continue to depreciate and imported goods (such as oil) increase in price.
But even with this artificial boost to U.S. prices, look at oil prices vs. income and you'll see that oil is much cheaper now that it was 25 years ago, or 50 years ago. That's why oil companies aren't looking for more. That's why U.S. reserves and production peaked. No-one invests billions of dollars in new exploration to find something that's cheap and getting cheaper.
If we ever were really close to Peak Oil, prices would actually go up. We'd be paying $5+ a gallon, and over 100 Euros per barrel. Oil demand would plummet as people start lowering their consumption through very cheap and simple means (car pooling, mass transport, hybrid cars, not buying damn SUV's and buying econoboxes instead).
But since oil is still cheap and plentiful it doesn't make sense to do that now. Hybrids don't even pay for themselves at todays prices.
Most estimates are we are about 50-100 years from getting close to running out. The peak oil guys aren't very credible because they keep predicting doom in five years, and when it doesn't happen, they just move out their predictions another five years.
|