[sweetjazz]

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The only thing folding this hand does is saves you money in the long term and thats the point of view you have to take into NL hold'em. Sure you may pick up a pot becuase a donk decided to pay you off with air this one time. But out of 100 times, if you played this hand i guarantee you wouldn't be + money. You need to make the most +EV play for the long term.

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I am not disagreeing with you, per se. BUT WHY??? I want to understand WHY folding here is the most +EV play.

For starters, let's try to estimate the probability that nobody else has a jack. There are 47 unseen cards, two of which are jacks. There are 10 unknown cards out there. Let's begin by assuming that each opponent has a random hand. (They are loose, so this is a decent first approximation, though of course, we expect to see them with a J more often than a 2.) There's a 45/47 chance the first isn't a jack, a 44/46 the second isn't a jack (assuming the first wasn't), and so. The total probability that nobody has a jack is (37*36)/(47*46) = 0.616.

Let's assume that they are a little more likely to have a J because of their preflop hand selection, and let's also discount our odds because they could have 83 (especially if it is suited), 88 or 33. So let's say that 50% of the time there is a better hand out there.

Okay, I just bet 20 into a pot with 30 in it. Any other hand calling is a mistake, so if they are playing optimally (from the POV of the FTOP) I should win 30 50% of the time and lose 20 50% of the time. (But BTW I have outs to improve to two pair and a BD flush draw, so I can still win some of the time I am called.) So according to this simplistic model, my flop bet has an EV of 5.

So again, I ask can someone explain explain WHY check/folding would be best here?