[tewall]

I agree completely. There's only a 1 in 3 chance he has a pair, and without one there's a good chance he'll fold, and he may fold a smaller pair. Hero would be risking 2.3 to win 1, so Villain would have to call 43% of the time (and win all of these) to break even, so pushing has to be +EV here.

Checking the flop gives Villain the opportunity to take the pot away.