View Single Post
  #18  
Old 12-07-2005, 04:36 AM
jedi jedi is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 517
Default Re: Chase the low draw?

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz,I'm sure that you are correct when you say that the implied pot odds for him to win his portion are no more than 3 to 1 & that the odds against him making a winning low are around 4 to 1.However,it seems to me that these backdoor shots are a little bit diferent from a situation where you draw twice at the same thing,like an inside straight draw,for example.In this case,before the flop Boolean has 27 cards out of 45 to pick up a low draw,3 to 2 in his favor to do this.If he misses on obtaining the pick-up,he throws his hand away.When he "hits",he will receive about 4 to 1 from the pot to draw to either 20 or 21 cards out of 44,about 6 to 5 against.I know that having the ability to throw your hand away 1/2 way through the situation when it's not developing must improve the total situation quite a bit,but I'm not a good enough mathmatician to get a good handle on this.If you or one of the other posters could show me how it works,I would appreciate it greatly,Thanks. Ben.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think part of the problem is still that you're still playing for half the pot. The flop is high, paired, with a 2 flush. You have NO chance for high unless your opponents are complete idiots, and even then you might be drawing dead for high.

Let me try my hand at the math. If it's 3 to 1 with implied pot odds, and 3 to 2 in favor to pick up a low card on the turn. That's fine, but if there's a low card, you have to pay off ANOTHER bet on the turn to see the river. That's 1.5 big bets right there for 1/2 the pot. (I'll edit this in a second)

Edit:
Okay:
On the flop, there are 9SB in the pot, it's 11 SB in the pot when Hero makes the decision to call. According to Buzz, it's not the 6 to 1 odds, but you have to discount the odds for the times you get quartered so Buzz gives it about 3 to 1 to draw to a backdoor low. Assuming you make the call, there are 6.5 BB in the pot for the turn. There's a 3 to 2 shot to find a low card, in which case you need to likely call AT LEAST 1 more bet on the turn. So, instead of 1SB on the flop, it's a 6 to 5 shot of 1.5 BB. After turn betting, it's 10.5BB and let's say you're about 3 to 2 to hit your river low. You can check/raise as hero did to get to 16.5BB (but that might not always happen, since someone might fold). So, it's not just the 1SB on the flop, but 1SB for a 3 to 2 shot at risking 1 BB, for a 6 to 5 shot at getting 8.5BB.

Okay, I'm now confused. Someone help me out here?

Either way, you're drawing for a backdoor low with no chance at a scoop in a not mid size pot. I fold this without a second thought on the flop.

Reply With Quote