Re: Post Flop - river call?
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Gump, I like your analysis. But you are not considering the "win" into your results. Very skewed, IMO.
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Well, sure, I'm not putting in any exact probabilities. What I'm saying is that I think most of the time you're up against at least another K. In my opinion, it is quite unlikely that you'll win outright, so yes, I'm discounting this. If we now look at a case where you're going to splitting or losing - which I admit is oversimplified - you need to be confident that you'll split somewhere between 75-80% of the time to make calling correct, and even then it's quite marginal. The fact that you can win means this needs to be adjusted downward. Anyway, it's not ever going to be a particularly great spot, and so I don't mind passing on this one and figure that what I'm foregoing if I gauged it wrong is a theoretical +10 chips or so.
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