Results and some discussion here
The guy with the Seven in the door did, in fact, have pocket Jacks and split with the low hand. I had been in good shape until this point, very good shape early on, and this more or less crippled me. I steamed off the rest of my chips in relatively short order.
I am not entirely sold on the fourth-street raise. First off, I don't even know that it would knock this guy out. It should, of course, but this tournament was not filled with regular stud/8 players. I was on three different tables, and at any one of them, I don't think there was more than one handle I recognized. Now I realize that some people post under different handles than the ones that they use on Stars, and if I were at all serious about it, I probably would too. But there were people asking rules questions and the like. So I think it's reasonable to assume that this guy doesn't know how to play, and people who don't know how to play are going to over-value a pair of Jacks. Case in point, I muck his hand without a second thought on third street, what with an Ace, a King, and several good low cards behind me. Jacks is a pretty strong hand in hold'em. I've certainly played against people who won't toss a pair of Jacks just because A5 bets and 23 raises.
Of course, if he won't be knocked out, then I really have no reason not to raise. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
I also question whether I want to knock him out. If I thought that the Ace were on a low draw, I think that would make a lot of sense, although I must admit that that's not what I usually do. I think that when he makes it two bets, however, it's very likely that he has split Aces, or perhaps a big pocket pair. If he has Aces, I have only five outs to the straight, and my prospects for backing into high some other way are pretty dim. If he were merely on a worse low draw, I could potentially win high by catching a small pair.
These are some numbers from twodimes if I keep him in:
ks 7h 6h dead
4s 5d 2d 3h 0.489
5s Ac 8d Ah 0.341
7s Jc Jd Th 0.170
and if I knock him out:
ks 7h 6h th 7s jc jd dead
4s 5d 2d 3h 0.545
5s Ac 8d Ah 0.455
I make a small gain in pot equity, but I lose the chance to milk this guy later in the hand. I'm not sure this trade-off is worth it.
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