Re: butchered live hand: TPMK in the blinds with 8 to the flop
Maybe the reads I included weren't enough. MP is not betting a gutshot or middle pair. He has K9s, KTs, KJ, KQ, 99, 22, or (outside chance) AK. Against this range I'm behind more than 16 combinations, ahead 2 ways, and splitting 6. If behind I have three really dirty outs.
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...by raising you are laying 12:2=6.1-1 to people calling behind you. This means someone calling with a gutshot or a 9 or a 2 is making a mistake)
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If I raise (we'll assume MP and the callers will call one more bet to them) players behind me are getting better than 7.5-1 on a call which is really close to the threshhold for a 5 outer. If one person CC's then the next guy is certainly right to call with a 5 outer. With implied odds, a gutshot might even be correct in CC'ing this raise.
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Btw, if you weren't planning on getting aggressive when you hit top pair with KJo, why are you playing it in the first place
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...I was in the BB. Nevertheless, if I limped on the button it wouldn't really change anything. You play with the information you have available to you at the time.
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