Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
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expert is in is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, a tough player raises, expert calls and big blind calls.
Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Expert checks, BB checks, UTG checks, tough player bets, expert calls...
is this call an expert play or lapse in judgement?
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It's a bad call preflop. You are going to lose money long term playing small pairs in a raised pot against a few opponents.
88% of the time you will not flop a set.
.88 * 1 BB = -.88
12% of the time you flop a set, however, empirical studies with TTH shows that you will be outdrawn 12% of the time.
You have 3 opponents here. Let's say you get 2 opponents calling 3 bets on the Flop, 2 calling 2 bets on the Turn and 1 calling 1 bet on the River. That's a lot of action for so few opponents, and totals 8 BBs to go with the 3 BBs they posted preflop - 11 BBs you win.
(.12*.88)*11 = +1.16 BBs
When you are outdrawn, you pay 1BB preflop. 1.5 BBs on the Flop, 2 BBs on the Turn and 1 BB on the River.
(.12*.12)*5.5 = -.08 BB
1.16 - .08 - .88 = .20 BBs * 100 instances = 20 BB +EV
In your case, you are not going to see that much action. In fact, in most all cases, we are not going to see that much action against so few opponents.
I see it as an easy fold pre-flop.
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