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Old 09-01-2005, 05:55 PM
RiverDood RiverDood is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: California
Posts: 113
Default Re: UB MTT I bust out on the bubble

At first I though this was an annoying but necessary fold.

You've got no folding equity with AK after his push (obviously.) You aren't desperate yet; you've got enough chips to see 2 1/2 more orbits (20 hands) before you're grievously short-stacked. There's still time for something better to happen. After all, there are three players with smaller stacks at your table, creating plenty of chances for other bust-outs or your turn to snatch their blinds after the bubble has cleared.

And I also didn't like the fact that the big stack is sinfully loose -- figuring that it actually hurts you. If you felt he were only pushing with A5/KT/99 or better, you'd dominate a lot of hands. But if he's pushing with almost anything, you don't dominate nearly as often.

But after playing around with the numbers, they still come out in your favor. You're at 65% if he's playing any two, and I don't think that will change much if we throw out total dreck like 83o, etc.

Unless 40th place really paid money that meant a lot to you -- or the difference between 25th and 10th was insignificant -- it's worth the gamble to press on. If you win this hand, you've got a fine shot at going a lot deeper in the tournament. The ultimate test: if you played this situation 100 times, you'd make more money being in this pot.

Sorry it didn't work out.
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