[Double Down]

"By your info there is exactly one hand (QJ with a spade) he can have that has you beat, and even then you are only a 47/53 dog. All other hands he has that he will push no matter what(yikes), you either are a favourite againts or have crushed. This makes getting all the chips in not a bad idea. Do you see why?

Some fantastic reads on your part, but you seem unwilling to go with them."


There are a lot of hands other than qj with 1 spade has me beat. q9, q8, 96, and 86 with 1 spade also has me beat.
j9, or j8 with 1 spade has me beat beadly cuz he's got 17 outs. 98 with a spade has me crushed, he's got 20 outs.

kx, qx, or jx with 1 spade he has 11 or 12 outs. 45, 35, 34 with 1 spade, he has 12 outs.

Now do you see the predicament? If I make any bet and he raises, there's a very good chance that he is raising with a drawing but a favorite, and at worst, a slight dog if he has 11 or 12 outs. And do I want to risk my life on a hand that I don't even know if I'm a fave, and if I am, I'm no more than a ~62% fave? Oh, and of the hands that I have crushed, he won't call with many of them.

I mean, come on, people, I still have a lot of chips. And one of the main concepts of tourney poker is that it's ok to let go of a +EV situation if by doing so, you can make an even more +EV decision later on.

But if I bet a little or check, it's pretty much like folding because every card on the turn is a scare card and he'll bet no matter what.

Look, for what it's worth, I pushed, he thought for a long time and called with kj and the king was the spade. So he had 11 outs, got no help, and I won the tourney. $6,600, nice payday.

And I felt like I made the right move until I told 2 friends about it, and they told me that pushing was a horrible play. And these are two very well respected 2+2ers. So that's why I'm posting the hand.

So criticize my push play but don't pretend like there is a cut and dry decision here. It comes down to the fact that I just want to take the pot down right there, but only a push can do it, which is unfortunate because the stack sizes are still pretty big compared to the pot and the blinds. That's why it's a tough little situation.