[mgsimpleton]

well if two people have pocket pairs it's 12% times 8% or something, right?

and if 3 people have pocket pairs it's 12% times 16%? is this math right at all?

so just take the conditional probability of a pocket pair in each spot (1/17) times the prob. of them flopping a set given you flop a set (and thus there are only 2 cards for them to do it in) so (8%) and multiply that by 9 in a full ring... so if you flop a set, the odds of someone else flopping a set are 72% (1/17) or a little under 5%.

that sound right?

of course that's purely based on random cards in every spot, so if more people call pre flop raises, what's the likely hood they have a pocket pair? more than 1/17. so let's say people call preflop raises with pocket pairs 1/3 of the time, 2/3 it is suited connectors or AK, AQ hands... then it's more like 1/3 times 8 percent for every preflop caller which is significantly more...