Re: Big Pots
my point is really that it the decision is only 'close' because of a of a mistake that was made which then provided a situation in which it became a 'close' call. Betting the flop is the key mistake as far as I see it in so far as it kind of commits him to a pot he should want to get away from (i.e. makes it numerically reasonable to call). And in the end the mistake was a result of misunderstanding how the pot-odds relate to decision making. If I have 55 preflop I want to get in for 1 bet, I don't want to be raised and I certainly don't want to be faced with a cap. That all points to the potential for lots of pocket pairs or strong drawing hands, and as a whole my hand has shrunk up considerably... EVEN when you hit the set unless the board is perfect... i.e. no A,K,Q,J, no 2 flushed board, no 2 straightened board you could be in trouble. At the very least because you are playing in a hand that was capped pre-flop it is more likely that you are behind. Then compounding the situation, the pot is more than large enough to justify many drawing hands (including inside ones) calling down at least the turn and probably the river. And if the pot-odds justify these calls that means your hand is vulnerable to draws which will beat your 'made' hand a significant percentage of the time. Not to mention that if someone has a bigger set you are going to lose big! If faced with this situation (having made the initial bet) I would play the hand, but cautiosly, and with the knowledge that I am probably trying to minimize the long term loss that will result from playing in this situation. Which isn't to say you fold, but just to say you play (and potentially play strongly) to win when you are ahead, but with the knowledge that you got caught having to play a hand that is probably not +EV.
Another fact to consider which makes this a folding situation is that of position. He is out of position which means he will have a harder time making up the disparity between the actual pot-odds and the implied pot-odds... it is harder to maximize your hands value when you have to act first. Do you bet and not get in a check-raise? or do you check and hope someone bets? Another reason to make a borderline hand one that should be folded.
In fact, I might not have played this hand at all because of the position depending on my sense of the game. And most importantly the rasier. Calling raises should be done carefully even with a lot of people in the pot because it is MORE likely that some of them have quality hands with which they are calling/making raises.
-K_squared
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