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Old 12-18-2005, 09:17 AM
winky51 winky51 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 122
Default Re: Does a decreased winrate have an exponential effect on variance?

Let me put all this math into English for our poker player readers.

It does not take many hands lost to affect your win rate. When you win you win what the other players put into the pot and you KEEP you what put into the pot. Your share is not won money. When you lose you lose the money you should have won from other players and your money. So you lose more than you win when you lose.

Other factors. If you run good players fear you. They think your lucky. They will play predictable against you and NOT bluff. So you know where you stand at all times. You can bluff more. All you need is one extra bluff an hour to increase your BB/100 a large amount. Look at it this way if you bluff just one $25 pot in 3/6 extra every hour thats at least 2-3 BB extra an hour.

Now look at the other side of the coin. Your losing. Now you CAN'T bluff, other players get unpredictable and try to bluff. You slightly tilt can't believing you got drawn out again so you may call a bit more. Even if you just lose just one extra pot an hour due to a well placed semibluff you decrease your win rate 2-3 BB. Now add lets say 1 BB of tilt. Well look at the shift.

Running hot: Bluff +2-3 BB, Plays well -0 BB, Players predictable thus saves you bets +1 BB
Running poorly: No bluff -?, Players bluff you -2 to -3 BB, Tilt -1 BB.

Its simple but it gets the point accross.

Thats why I...

Always buy in for more: New players entering the table see you are already lucky. Also good players coming to the table will usually leave once they see a couple big stacks. I do.

Switch tables: If you're running bad switch tables. I don't care how fishy they are those players are feeling "lucky" and are playing comfortable. They might get some balls and bluff you now and then. I've seen VPIP 50, PRF 0.4, TAF.6 start bluffing at the table when this fish is feeling good. When he feels bad he NEVER bluffs and only raises when he's got it. You want the other guy on tilt not you. Move to a new table.

Quit for 30 mins: If all your tables are bad, quit go do some excersize, have sex with the wife/gf, step outside and get some air, go eat something. Get away from the mindset and environment that is frustrating you.

Nufsed.
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