Re: 82s
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He definately doesn't have the best hand but I still like the turn bet. I think that a TAG WILL drop a weaker king here because you showed him you mean business on the flop.
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A couple of weeks ago, W.D. wrote an interesting post about betting in this situation. At first I was nonplussed by his opinion since I am (or at least was) a "take the free card/check behind w/ outs" guy. Then I sat down and did the math behind betting here.
Hero probably has 14 clean outs and roughly 30% equity. So a bet costs him .4BB in EV if called. In a 5BB pot, villian has to fold a better hand 1 time in 12 in order for hero to make up the lost .4BB. This particular villian is probably folding a K here a lot of the time, since he's a bit weak/tight and is looking at having to pay 2 bets to only win 7.
This analysis doesn't take into account the fact that villain might raise and hero still has to call. But it also doesn't account for the fact that hero is sometimes ahead here and is risking the whole pot to a free river suckout. I'm not sure these two factors offset, but they're close.
I'm still a "take the free card guy", but I've altered my thinking a bit in cases where my opponent is giving me extra fold equity.
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