Re: What do you think of my play
You only have 7 clean outs to scoop with a flush, and 11 outs to the nut low. 18 outs total - so 59% of the time you will lose your whole bet. 7 times you will scoop - 16% 11 times you will take half 25%
With four opponents
EVbet= (-1)(.59)+4(.16)+1.5(.25)=.425 bets So your bet is +EV if you don't get quartered. 1/5 of the time you hit the low.... You still are + 0.25 bets.
If you only get 3 callers you are neutral EV.
Unless I really hose my EV calc, it looks like a good bet, which surprises me.
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