View Single Post
  #30  
Old 10-07-2005, 03:37 PM
ravensfan ravensfan is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: TDot
Posts: 34
Default Re: $33: JJ facing raise on the bubble.

Fold: be hard to put him on less than K5s, which is apparently -0.5 when villian calls a push. Since you're -EV when he has the worst, it can only get worse, given he has at least one overcard. Probability of underpair should not significantly change this, from an overall tournament perspective IMO. Particularly since if he's been raising 2.5-4.5x BB ish lately, a push should imply he's on a better hand, more often than not - why bluff away his commanding stack with say, 84o when the small bets seem to work.
Small stack and 3rd may start getting desperate soon, so sit back and pick a better spot.
Reply With Quote