Re: Yes Virginia, people do \"make moves\"
OK - I thought this hand was interesting on a few fronts -
First, I think my call on the turn was very bad actually. I think the vast majority of the time, against most opponents, I am toast here.
I am curious to hear more arguments about why checking the turn is a good idea - what's funny is that if I had AA or KK I probably check the turn looking to keep the pot small and get to showdown cheaply. But because I had only bottom pair I was hoping the turn bet would fold a weak J. I also had picked up a flush draw so I thought I should stay aggressive.
I think the interesting part of this hand is my opponent's play. Here is why:
If you are me, what range of hands do you bet the turn with?
Also, what range of hands do you call the turn checkraise with? For most players, I think this range is pretty narrow - JJ-AA, AhKh and QJ, are the only hands I can make a case for calling the turn checkraise with and many weak tighties would fold KK-AA to this kind of aggression.
So if that's the case getting about even money my opponent's check raise bluff needs to work only 50% of the time to be +EV -
Given the range of hands I listed above, do I fold more than 50% of the time? Maybe....
****Edited to say that Villain was only getting 2:3 on his money so his bluff has to work more than 2/3 of the time to be profitable.
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