[Jester999]

[ QUOTE ]
But let's assume equal chances of (1) Big set (2) top two (3) a huge draw. I think this is a reasonable assumption and is probably close to the one that the majority of the people who said "call" are making.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the weighting here is flawed and you're discounting other hands such as top and bottom pair and bottom two. I think the assumptions make the math very flawed.

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, I am a little surprised, I thought it would come out negative. Note, however, if we increase the chances of A even a tiny bit, it quickly becomes very negative.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've already WAY overestimated the likelyhood of a bigger set, so I really think you're reaching.

Like I've said, at these levels I've seen this move 3 or 4 times that I can think of and the hand either got shown down or the player who moved all in flahsed their cards after the opponent folded. It's been two pair every single time, so maybe my process is somewhat skewed.

And before I get someone telling me that 'set over set' isn't THAT rare. I agree. I had it 3 times yesterday and was on top everytime en route to my biggest single winning day in my poker history online.


And...just for fun...

[ QUOTE ]
Just want to point out that it isn't a one-outer. You just know that board is coming heart-heart if villian has a bigger set. I mean, party is rigged, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]