[Guruman]

I'll give it a shot. [please check my EV here, as I’m still learning how to do the specific math]

I'm assuming small blind is the button since we're headsup. The odds of hitting a gutshot are 11-1, or 8.5%. We’ll need a pot that 9.75 sb in size to correctly call without implied odds.
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Lets say Wolverine holds AKo in the bb, and Magneto holds JQo in the sb, and both play correctly. The flop will come down KT8.

1)Magneto raises on a steal, Wolverine threebets for value, Magneto caps with position, Wolverine calls. This makes the pot 8sb on the flop. Wolverine bets, and Magneto is getting 9-1 to call and chase his gutshot to the turn (with an implied turn lead from Wolverine to make it 10-1). He folds needing 11-1.

2)Magneto raises on a steal, Wolverine threebets for value, and Magneto just calls. Now the pot is 6sb on the flop. Wolverine bets, and Magneto is now getting just 7-1 with an implied 8-1 on his gutshot. Magneto folds.

3)Magneto raises on a steal and Wolverine just calls for deception. The pot is 4sb on the flop, and Magneto autofolds to Wolverine’s autobet.

4)Magneto calls and Wolverine checks. The pot is 2sb on the flop, and Magneto autofolds to Wolverine’s autobet.

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Now let’s have Magneto peel the flop.
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1) Magneto raises on a steal, Wolverine threebets for value, Magneto caps with position, Wolverine calls. This makes the pot 8sb on the flop. Wolverine bets, and Magneto is getting 10-1 to call and chase his gutshot to the turn. He has to catch on the turn, since if he misses he'll have to fold to Wolverine's turn bet. EV on this call [10sb * 8.5% = 0.85sb]. This means that Magneto is losing 0.15sb on this call, and will have to make up 0.75 sb to break even.

2) Magneto raises on a steal, Wolverine threebets for value, and Magneto just calls. Now the pot is 6sb on the flop. Wolverine bets, and Magneto is now getting just 8-1 when he calls with the worst of it. [8sb * 8.5% = 0.68 sb] This means that Magneto is losing 0.32 sb with his flop call, and he’ll have to make up 2.75 bets when he connects in order to break even.

3) Magneto raises on a steal and Wolverine just calls for deception. The pot is 4sb on the flop. Wolverine bets, and Magneto is getting 6-1 when he calls. The EV of this call is [6sb * 8.5% = 0.51] meaning that Magneto is losing 049sb when he calls, and he’ll have to make up 4.75 small bets in order to break even!

4) Magneto calls and Wolverine checks. The pot is 2sb on the flop. When Magneto calls, he’ll be getting 4-1 on his call. [4sb * 8.5% = 0.34sb]. This means that Magneto is losing 0.66 of a small bet on this pot, and will have to make up 6.75 small bets before he breaks even.

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Here’s what I get from this:

1)Magneto is never getting correct immediate odds to call on the flop with a four bet cap. Only occasionally does he have correct implied odds.

2)The times that Magneto can call semi profitably on the flop, he has to fold on the turn when he misses. This will occur 91.5% of the time.

3)JQ doesn’t hold up well vs AK.

4)Magneto’s best move is to limp the sb then fold the flop.

5)Magneto’s worst move is limp the sb, then call the flop.

I think my math is close, but I’d appreciate appropriate beratement and correction.
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