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Old 08-22-2005, 01:24 AM
Dave G. Dave G. is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 616
Default Re: KTo against a crackhead

The A and 7 are bad cards. The J and Q are unpleasant, but not earth shattering. They're not guaranteed to hurt you, and if they do, they set up a river redraw for you.

If he 3-bets the pot will be bloated, and they may call more correctly later on for their gutshot, but that will never make up for the huge error they make if they call the flop getting such horrible odds (assuming they do).

Another problem with waiting here is if someone has a backdoor flush draw to go with whatever else they have. If you don't make them pay a premium on the flop and they improve to a flush draw on the turn, you've priced them in to chase any river. Now, they would not be making an error at any point during the hand, which costs you some EV and might cost you the pot if they'd fold to a flop raise.

UTG+1 can't like his position being sandwhiched between two raisers and facing two cold. He might fold lots of hands we don't want him hanging around to see the turn with. If he's at all a reasonable player, he'd fold a naked Q here. If the turn comes with a J or a Q, getting him out on the flop might save us the pot.

By waiting for the turn, we're letting everyone correctly draw against us, and basically offering up the pot to anyone who wants to call. It's important to protect on the flop as well as any other street. I don't think this is a good time to wait for the turn.
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