More fun with variance - monte carlo results
Ok, I whipped up a little monte carlo simulation in java that does the following:
Given the total cost of an STT, payout structure, and %chance of finishing in each of the paid spots, it runs a player through 10,000 STTs. I wrote the program to run 10,000 players through 10,000 STT's and save the data to run stats on. I can easily change any of the variables and re-run it. For the first go round I used:
Entry fee: $55
Normal pay outs (250, 150, 100)
12% chance for finishing 1, 2, or 3 (so 36% ITM)
This comes out to $5/S&G, or 1/11 (.0909...%) ROI.
So, for 10k players playing 10k tournies each, here is what I got.
Net Profit:
Mean: $49,962 (E is 50K)
SD of Net: $8,789
Max Profit: $83,600
Min Profit: $17,100
ROI
Mean: 9.08%
SD: 1.60%
Max: 15.20%
Min: 3.11%
Max Loss (Before going positive for good)
Mean: $709 (just under 13 buy ins)
SD: $747
Max: $7,140 (just under 130 buy ins!)
Min: $0 (duh)
Last STT where player was negative
Mean: 291 (!!!)
SD: 422
Max: 3,755 (!!!)
Min: 0 (again, duh.)
As I said, easy enough to change the values and see how different assumptions change things. I probably wont move this to my home computer until tomorrow, but if there are specific runs people want me to do, it takes like 2 min all told to do the run and post process the data. (It takes longer to type it in here. Maybe I will add the stats to the program and have it spit out cut and pastable results.)
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