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  #18  
Old 08-16-2005, 01:32 AM
Costanza Costanza is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 17
Default Re: 4 handed, big stack playing properly, dealt AK

I still think this is an interesting problem.

Even if you put villian on any 2 cards, this is a clear fold. In fact, you should fold even if he were to turn over 32o:


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=295354
pokenum -h ac kd - 3s 2h
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kd 1116001 65.18 587030 34.28 9273 0.54 0.654
3s 2h 587030 34.28 1116001 65.18 9273 0.54 0.346


So you'll win 65% and lose 34% of the times you make this call.

If you fold: remaining stacks (assuming BB folds as well): 1290, 5095, 1030, 585. ICM puts your $EV at 0.211

If you call, you'll win 65% on the time. The stacks will change to 1290, 3665, 2460, 585 which gives you an $EV of 0.308. You'll lose 35% of the time which obviously makes your $EV 0. On average, calling will leave you with an $EV of (0.65*0.308) = 0.200 which means according to ICM, you should fold.

So -- what should you call with? In order for the call to be correct you need to win 0.211/0.308 = 68.5% of the time. If you really think he's pushing random cards, you need 99+ to make this call.

This is all still very counterintuitive to me. But this just illustrates a situation where the Gap is at it widest. And also shows why a big stack on the bubble is so valuable in the right hands.


Edit: wow... it took me a lot longer to work through that than I thought it did... there were only 4 responses when I started...
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