[betgo]

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It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)

However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)

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What would you do? Fold 86s in the SB.

Villain has pot odds and knows SB doesn't need a big hand to push. 35% or less of hands calling is reasonable, but a big stack could call with close to 50%. There are a lot of resaonable hands with high cards or whatever. Plus, a big stack can afford to make a marginal call to discourage attacks on his blinds. I don't see that as idiotic.

I am not convinced this is $EV-, but chip EV+. I don't have the exact payout structure, but the money is in the top places. The difference between 9th and 6th places is tiny by comparison to the jumps for the top 3 places, so I say gamble.

If you were already a big stack, a coin flip with another big stack might not be good, since you would be risking a fairly sure shot at a top place.