Re: Final table hand of a Party 50+5
It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)
However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)
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