Re: Flop action?
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I think players are less likely to think their 9 or 10 is going to be enough to take this down.
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I was thinking more of someone that had something like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] who would try to draw for an ace but could accidently hit a flush. (Not that they should be doing this, but I see it fairly often on boards like this.) Suppose the 4th spade comes on the river and the original flop bettor checks... the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] will probably check, but I'd be willing to bet that they will call if the only river bet comes from late position. I see people call with that kind of crap all the time if they hit a weak draw with their kicker.
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I kind of implied in my post with the "hope to fold" comment but didn't say specifically is that the 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is the third nut draw on that board. Some players won't fold that draw, especially if they have something like A-10 that adds a straight draw. I think there are players that will fold the 9 or 10 of [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on that board because it was multiway. Also, there are players who will NOT fold 9-10 of [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on that board because it is the 3rd nut draw. Basically, the chances that those cards are out plus the chances we make them fold with a bet/PF raiser raises line is worth less than the money we make by going for a checkraise. I hope that makes sense, I'm at work so I'm trying to type fast.
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