Re: PLO8 100 hand
Twodimes suggests that even if Villain has a higher flush draw and low draw, Hero is STILL the favorite by 54: 45
If Villain has lower flush with an extra low card for counterfeit protection, doesn't change that much 59: 41 in Hero's favor.
However if the turn brings an 8d rainbow, Villain now becomes the favorite 53:46. With the higher flush, it'd be even more so. However if the turn is a high card, it really favors Hero now.
This is similar to a previous hand yesterday that I saw on this forum. Potting the flop isn't bad in cases like this. Hero is the favorite. But a case could be made to wait and see the turn. If it comes good for Hero, Pot it. If it doesn't, Hero can just call.
I think one disadvantage not usually mentioned in the two posts is that if you do go all-in, you give up the advantage of position. Since one card can change the evaluation of the hand so much (from being a favorite to being a dog) I think it's better to wait until the turn to pull the trigger when you may be an overriding favorite in the hand. What if the board say pairs high 9s? Put yourself in Villain's place out of position when a bad card comes? Does he fake having the full house and bet? Does he show weakness and check and let the pot get taken from him?
With the stack sizes, you're probably getting all-in no matter what. However what if both stacks were larger? Then I think the optimum play favors waiting until the turn more when you can put the hammer down being a big favorite or just call if it comes low. If it comes 3 to a wheel, you might even fold. You don't have the calling and folding possibilities of course if you go all-in on the flop. To be fair, Villain has the same possibilities but he's out of position. He's check-raised the flop showing great strength. Villain must be mentally-tough Phil Helmuth type of laydown player to be able to fold the turn even if it comes bad for him.
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ac 4c 9h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
8c 7c Ad Ah 288 580 240 0 141 328 0 0.549
As Jc 2c 3h 207 240 580 0 469 0 0 0.451
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