[jackfrost]

Rozez, I don't think the problem is my bankroll but I do see your point.

Aaron I agree that thin draws will keep your opponent off balance, but if your opponent really knows the odds and he knows you know the odds, he will understand your play. But with a thin draw they usually won't put you on it until u hit them with a reraise.

Sen, I agree that people may often be to optimistic about there implied odds. But most often on the these longshots like gutshots or or a small pair and a backdoor flush, your implied odds are in good shape because your opponent won't smell out your hand until it is to late. I do agree that miscalculating your implied odds is a huge mistake, I see people making this mistake more often in NL than in limit, especially with stronger draws. I often see people paying pot size bets on the turn with a flush draw thinking i'm going to slide my stack over to them when the flush hits.

I'm not trying to argue, just merely trying to see where Ciaffone is coming from. I can tell that Ciaffone is a very intelligent man and when he makes a statement like that I think there must be some truth to it. When he wrote that portion of the book I know he looked at the odds and i'm sure several other poker brains read it before it was published. Of course, every poker book i've read seems to say something that is arguably incorrect. I think Baldwin said it best when he starts off by stating everything I say has an exception.

When I play online and i'm playing several tables I really don't even think twice and just go by the odds. When I go to a casino and only play 30 hands an hour and go up in limits considerably I don't think passing on slim draws is that bad of a mistake, eventho it really isn't any different than the mistake I would be making online. But this type of thinking does go back to Rozez original comment that my bankroll is to small, well it's not really that but i'm looking to turn a profit in a shorter span of time. I know being in a hurry is a sin in poker, but passing on some slightly better than even bets does make some since when you know you will have a bet with better odds shortly.

Another thing i've noticed is that one bad draw often leads to another.

I went back and looked at that paragraph again, since I hadn't read it for a while. It is the 3rd paragraph in chapter one. He says it is probably a mistake, but his philosophy of passing on longshots with +EV deffinetly caught my attention. The math is the pot is currently 110$ and it cost you 10$ to see the turn. With that right there i've got the pot odds to call w/out even considering the implied odds, my implied odds could actually be as good as 1:17, or even better if my opponent holds a set or a top two pair, the type of player your up against and what he is likely holding would have to come into play to judge this better.

I first started reaidng this book a couple months ago and after reading that part about the gutshot, I immediately got upset and quit reading. Decided to read the book recently and realized this guy is pretty bright and I can learn a lot from him.