[roueful]

Another way of doing it is to simply look at the types of flops (and turns) the players are calling with. If they only call with the nuts, it's going to be a pretty rare occurence, and they'll usually make it to showdown. Assuming you can deduce this part of their strategy (only playing the nuts), you can narrow down what they were holding even when they don't make it to showdown.

For example, player C playing A3o would only make it to showdown with quads or a board of AA332. But they'll call several types of flops. Simply checking for what they called with on the flop, and noticing when it become non-nut and they folded, you could pretty much deduce all their starting hands from when they called.

Another way of doing it would be similar to the approach above, looking at all the one card flops 222-AAA and checking the kicker.

This is of course assuming the opponent is reacting in a predictible way, as summarized in your descriptions.

Your main question, though, I think, is if you can extrapolate an opponent's entire preflop/postflop strategy based only on the cards they show down. And knowing that they only call with nut hands, if you can somehow use EV weighting to check your assumptions about what they're folding.

It seems like the answer would still have to be in hands shown down, though. It won't actually be directly correllated with EV, since nut hands are different than profitable hands (eg suited hands without an ace).

For example, take a player who only play pocket pairs. They're going to make the nuts (set) on several flops, but have to fold to any boards which are paired, have a possible straight or flush. Additionally, the only way 22-99 can't possibly have the nuts on the river without making quads. 22-55 can't even call the flop without quads. So you're going to see TT shown down slightly more often than those hands, on the rare 2367T board, and JJ and above gradually more often. Based on those showdowns, the easiest thing to do is just check how often the player made quads, note that it's evenly distributed through pairs (you'd have to omit or account for hands where the board double paired), and make the projection that it's representative of their hand range.