Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's not +EV because the odds are so large, you could play a lifetime and never even hope of hitting it. Positive expectation involves having a remote chance, 1 in 146mil is not even close to remote.
Odds of being killed by fireworks: 1 in 20mil
Odds of being killed by dog bite: 1 in 18mil
Odds of being killed by lightning: 1 in 4mil
Odds of being killed in bathtub: 1 in 800k
Odds of being killed in plane crash: 1 in 391k
Odds of being killed in a car crash: 1 in 6k
It looks being killed in a car crash is +EV during a person's lifetime.
[/ QUOTE ]
er. no.
Anyway, the lottery is +utilityEV. $1 doesn't matter to you in the long run, having one less dollar will affect your quality of life by approx. zero. Winning the lottery would have a huge +utility effect.
The lottery is +utilityEV because of marginal utility. It's -$EV though.
[/ QUOTE ]
Bingo. It's -EV. But I play it because I want to and having a bajillion dollars would be sweet.
|