Re: Marginal Turn Decision: 5:1 with a weak draw
I post the following in hope that someone will explain what's wrong with it:
You're 40/60 against a random hand, which means you're almost certainly a dog on the side pot.
You have almost no shot at the main pot unless a club, 5h or 4 comes, and the club will be no good at least 60% of the time. You probably have less than 20% equity in the main pot, but you have at least 10% thanks to the 4 nut outs that may come on the river.
Given the fact that you're probably a dog against SB and he'll call anything there's little incentive to raise.
I would call and see the river.
If a 4 or 5h comes I'll try to get him all-in. If a club or 5d comes and he checks I'll put in a $30 bet. If he bets a club/5d I'll smooth call.
Does he bluff at rivers here? If not, I fold to any sizable bet when i miss the river. If you miss you have next to zero chance at the main pot and maybe 1/6 at best of winning the side pot, so I'd be inclined to fold to even a $10 bet.
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