[YoureToast]

I promised to provide a thorough analysis of why the Falcons are a good play this week. I can't because I don't have time (getting ready to go to Tunica for 4 days of heavenly poker).

I will say this. I still like this matchup A LOT. Miami is a solidly coached team, but they have no true threats, either offensively or defensively. Their downfield passing is limited in large part by their weak (but possibly up and coming) offensive line. Frerotte plays solid football, not taking many chances. Ronnie Brown is still learning the game and it shows, although you can tell is a potential great one.

The Falcons on the other hand have a several playmakers, both offensively and defensively, that can break the game open. Vick, Dunn, Crumpler, on offense, Hall, Kerney, Coleman on defense, and Rossum on special teams. While Miami's defense is solid, they are not in the mold of the defenses that give Vick the most trouble, like Philly or TB. Their pass rush is limited and Vick will have all day to decide what to do. When that happens, he is usually deadly, either passing or throwing. If Vick is 100% healty, this will be an "easy" game for him. He'll be able to dictate and control this game. I don't expect Dunn to have a big game, but Vick should given the nature of this defense. Most of my analysis here is kind of generic, but trust me when I tell you Miami's defense will not pose a problem for Vick and the Falcons offense, especially coming off a bye week. And Miami's offense, while developing, just doesn't have the weapons to threaten the improving Falcons defense.

There's a lot more I can say about this game, but just don't have the time or energy.

Atlanta will win by 10 or 14. As I suspected the line have moved from 2.5 to 1.5. It may move further. Take Atlanta at any price below 3, but wait to see if the line moves further down and be sure Vick is healthy before you make the move -- I'll try to report on what I know before the game on Sunday...They will then move on back home to beat a devastated Green Bay team before their real schedule begins. Carolina is their only threat right now in the South as I firmly believe Tampa will continue its collapse.

Also, does anyone know of any books that have running back yardage props for Sunday games? I think Dunn will underperform in this game so I'd be curious to see what props, if any, are available.