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Eastbay, what percentage of the time that you are holding pocket 9s will the flop come with no over cards? Do you think that this is something that ever poker player should know?
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I think they should have a useful knowledge of this kind of information. An number like 4.02% does not fit the profile.
eastbay
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Unless you are holding pocket 6s.
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You're missing the point pretty solidly, I think. They key is not the number but the word "useful".
eastbay
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I think eastbay's saying that having a general idea of these percentages is important, but exact numbers are a complete and utter waste of time. Obviously an AKQ and a T52 flop are drastically different overcard flops for 99, for example.
I have never, ever, ever used exact percentages while at a table to make a decision. The closest I've come is calling all ins with a draw, I count my outs and get an idea if my pot odds are roughly enough. Numbers are so dynamic that memorizing specific spots will only make you fixated on making that spot apply to your calculations, instead of calculating based on that specific spot. Obviously you're a good enough player that you're using reads and pot/bet sizes and information like that in your decisions, but by memorizing and concentrating on some ten-commandment set of percentages you'll find yourself going with your reads less, playing your opponent less, and otherwise losing the color from your game.
I do think doing calculations like these away from the table can help you get a feel for where you stand during a hand, but at the core they aren't what makes you a great player.
Everett
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Well said. I only have the energy for the provocation these days. Thanks for filling in the blanks.
I'll make my penance by adding something about my take on useful vs. useless:
Something like knowing that you have a little better than a 3/4 shot at getting an aceless flop for your KK is probably worth knowing (but read on), but knowing 77.4% is silly.
Furthermore, I submit to you a post I made a long time ago inquiring about these odds. There's a nice adjustment in there offered by Bozeman (it's a real shame he gave up on 2+2, btw, although I don't blame him), which is further evidence for why memorizing a number like 77.4% doesn't make much sense:
http://tinyurl.com/b3p8a
Furthermore, the idea that "every player should know" that you're 4.02% to not flop overcards with pocket sixes is ludicrous. It would even be silly to know 4%, although considerably less ridiculous than 4.02%.
What you should know is that you should count on flopping overcards with pockets 6's if you don't hit your set. The idea that somehow that 4% chance of not flopping overcards should be a factor in your thinking is wrong-headed. There are so many other far more important factors that to consider that 4% is only a distraction from what you should be thinking about and a way to screw up your play, not improve it.
eastbay