[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]

I really want to understand the thinking here!

I think this QJ9 suited flop sucks eggs. I hate it. I think the chances of being ahead here are 50-50 at best. Please explain to me why the hero shouldn't try to take the pot down now, on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a Party tournament, with shallower stacks and terrible play, you would simply bet and get it all in vs. AQ.

Live with...wait, 300 BB? I said 75 a post or two ago for some reason, but this makes it *much* worse...anyway, with 300 BB, when you get that many chips in the middle, Freddie Deeb will not have AQ. Ever.

When you reraise and this flop hits, Deeb knows you have one of a few hands: TPTK (unlikely but doesn't matter), an overpair, a set, or AK/air if you bluffed. The bluffs all end on a QJ9 flop, so when you bet, he knows you have at least AQ. Therefore, AQ won't call you. JT/T9 might, but you're tied with them. About the only hand he might continue with that you are ahead of is KQs, and only if he thinks he can stack you when he hits (note that he will play KhQh exactly like AhKh, so even a ten can be a dangerous card for you).

So basically, by betting, you're not maintaining control of the hand, you're giving it to Deeb (who will continue with most of what he had PF), because when he CR's, the pot will be so big by the river (without narrowing his range at all) that you'll often have to put in 300 BB with one pair. Ask anyone in MHNL how often that is a good idea.