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Old 12-08-2005, 09:30 AM
Fabian Fabian is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 67
Default Re: Choose your seat (complex)

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It's both. Many hands that a 43% ASB will steal with will show a profit > 0 big bets but < 0.75 big bets if the person in the big blind defends. Similarly, many hands that the person in the big blind defends with will show a loss of < 0.5 big bets, meaning we (the button stealer) prefer he folds those hands, but even if he calls we make more than 0 big bets.

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What's this .75BB over and over? We can't think of it as SB+BB = .75, as positional advantage, postflop skill and implied odds blow this number out of estimation.

It's not both. You either have a profitable situtaion or you don't. I like the profitable situation I have defined in this thread and I'm trying to point it out.

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Unless I'm misunderstanding you, you're saying that the button raiser will make more than 0.75 big bets with most of his stealing hands when the player in the big blind calls. I suggest reading the thread someone (I think Victor) linked to earlier in this thread.

Also, here are two examples of profitable situations:

You raise on the button with hand X. The small blind folds, and the big blind folds with hand Y. Button wins 0.75 big bets, the big blind loses 0.5 big bets, and the small blind loses 0.25 big bets.

You raise on the button with hand X. The small blind folds, and the big blind calls with hand Y. Button wins 0.41 big bets, the big blind loses 0.16 big bets, and the small blind loses 0.25 big bets.

Edit: Here is the link.
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