[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Im undecided on his flop bet,depends on his view of your image. I definately want bets going in on the flop and leading out isn't that bad if he's scared you will check behind.


[/ QUOTE ]
There are 2 different scenarios for each decision, let's compare them.

Bet:
1. We get raised and possibly isolated. On average we might get 1 cold caller so we might not be losing even if we get raised, but there are better ways ending up with this hand.
2. We don't get raised and it goes multiway to the turn. This is the good scenario when betting.

Check:
1. Button checks through and we get to see the turn for free. Obviously a 0 EV scenario.
2. Button bets and we get to checkraise a large field. This is a very good scenario for us.

If we compare the 1st scenarios for betting and checking we com to the conclusion that both are close to 0 EV.

If we compare the 2nd scenarios we can see that the 2nd scenario for checking is better than the 2nd scenario for betting.

Now we need to estimate how often these scenarios will appear. If we check our hand Button (Bodhi) will check all of his possible hands except for the PP's he'll raise preflop (AA-99/88? I think I'll raise AA-88 but limp 77). However we can some to the conclusion that Bodhi will check far more hands than he will bet.

This make me believe that betting this flop is better than checking against Bodhi. Against an unknown player (even with tagish stats) I think betting is better because far too many pfr autobet this flop.