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Old 09-17-2001, 04:08 AM
Posts: n/a
Default My Thoughts

I think the market will be down tomorrow in the 3-5% but I'm certainly not very good at making 1 day predictions. Expandding the time frame a bit, if there is anything I've learned about the markets it is that when the economic risk goes up, prices come down and vice versa. What I find interesting about the current situation is that there are many competing factors is assessing the economic risk. The uncertain nature of what will come in the war on terrorism certainly increases the economic risk. Also the economy probably hasn't bottomed in the current business cycle. Consummer confidence numbers were bad on Thursday and the best guesses are that the consummer is going to pull his horns in a little more so to speak because of this crisis. As Jack pointed out war is usually bullish but we're probably breaking some new ground here in fighting this war. I think it's fair to say that there will be a substantial increase in defense spending on all fronts. This will be stimulative to the economy in many ways. Also the Fed is supplying massive liquidity to the system and I'm quite sure that they will lower interest rates yet again. There is also quite a bit of speculation that there will be coordinated effort by the European and Japaneese central banks to lower interest rates. Even though the economy hasn't responed that well to lowered interest rates this year they are stimulative eventually. So the consummer is retrenching but the government spending is increasing a great deal. What about investment (capital) spending? I expect it to pick up a great deal in the subsequent quarters due to the increase in government spending. Lastly the net exports will probably rise due to a decline in the dollar and I expect more investment spending in Europe as well. So I think that GDP growth will indeed be given a shot in the arm due to the govt spending just as Keynes would have recommended. Perhaps consummer confidence will get a lift if we have some early success in our war and the increase in government spending abates the trend in increasing unemployment.
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