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Old 09-17-2005, 11:57 PM
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Default Re: Math guys: Chances of OTM 8 times in a row?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm estimating a 20% ROI player would probably have an ITM close to 40%, so OOTM of 60%.

Pr(OOTM 8 times of 8)=0.6^8=0.0168=1.68%

So basically if you divide the games you play into sets of 8 a player with a 40% ITM can EXPECT to finish OOTM in all 8 SNGs from the set about once every 60 sets, or 480 games.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. There are 60 sets of 8 consecutive games in 67 games. Your odds of finishing OOTM 8 in a row in a set of N games is thus given by 100*(1-(.9832)^(N-7)) where N > 8. I think that should be right.

Streaks are very common. In 100 games, expect to see a set of 8 OOTM in a row ~80% of the time. This assumes your OOTM is 60%. If it's not, replace .9832 with (1-OOTM^8).

Hope this helps.
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