[scotty34]

Hmmm... I'll repost my thoughts in a different way as to why I don't like this river bet. I think you have decent fold equity on the turn from crappy Ax hands, as they don't have odds to draw. The turn bet is good IMO.

On the river, for this bet to be profitable, he has to fold a better hand ~1/7 times. There is also the factor of him calling a worse hand, though that is nearly negligible with most opponents.

With a board like this, he is going to fold a pocket pair never.

He is going to fold AK practically never.

He is going to fold AQ sometimes, but still not too often IMO.

He will fold A7-AJ reasonably often, but definetly not always. If he is going to call a turn bet getting 6:1 with A7-AJ, I think this is often because he plans to go to showdown. On the turn, he should see that he is
1. Drawing dead
2. Dominated by a better A and drawing to 3 outs
3. Behind a PP and likely drawing to 3 outs (sometimes 6, but rarely)
4. Ahead
The only one of those scenarios where is is even close to good enough to call is Ahead. If he was willing to call the turn, there is a high chance that he will call the river. You may want to argue that a lot of players aren't skilled enough to think about a hand in terms of outs like this, however, I think that it is these unskilled types that also like to showdown A high on a raggedy board.