Re: NBA picks
I am working out the final details of it now. Basically what I am doing is taking both teams average points scored and allowed and averaging them together for a base.
I am then taking into consideration a calculation of
FG% x Assists x TO's forced (TURN OVERS)
FG% allowed x Assists allowed x TO's
I do this for each team which produces a number that will fall into the category of whether I will add or shave points from the teams averages.
My grid at present looks like this.
<950 950-999 1000-1049 1050-1099 >1099
-5 -3 1 3 5
So for the game tonight between MIL/Bos I produce the following results.
MIL 0.433 2 21.6 14 261.8784
0.462 2 21 14.9 289.1196
BOS 0.463 2 20.7 15.8 302.85756
0.448 2 20.2 17 307.6864 1161.54196
195.5 5 200.5
I multiplied in a 2 because of earlier work I did in researching this. It has no significance. So if you eliminate it you just move the numbers down. Yes this is stupid.
Anyway, I am right now focusing on games that produce a difference of at least 5. Bodog has this game currently at 202 so I will be laying off of this one.
The 3 games I am playing using this tonight will be.
(719) Seattle SuperSonics vs. (720) Portland Trail Blazers Over 191 (-105) Fri@10:05p
(709) Denver Nuggets vs. (710) New Jersey Nets Over 191 (-105) Fri@7:35p
(705) Utah Jazz vs. (706) Indiana Pacers Over 171 Fri@7:05p
Utah and Indiana produced 177.
Den and NJ produced 196.
Sea and Port produced 196.
I didn't have time this morning to do all the games but here are a few more.
Mia/Phi - at 200 on bodog. I produced 197.
Pho/NOH - at 196 on bodog. I produced 197.
1 unit each for these games. I will make sure to adjust for juice.
2-1 YTD +4.9 units
I am open to any feedback good or bad. I am just trying to figure out a means to do my due diligence when selecting the over/under for a game. I don't claim this to be a god sent method to bet the games. Just a theory that hopefully can be developed.
Flame away.
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