[W. Deranged]

Seems like a lot of you are thinking a call here.

Some things to consider:

1. I have shown quite a bit of strength. I check-raised a large field and bet both the turn and the river. There is little reason to believe I will lay down my hand.

2. The MP player is very unlikely to have a hand that is beating mine. He seems likely to have a hand that is either hopelessly chasing (AQ or something like that) or a made hand that he is incapable of folding (QQ or JJ). He will often have a hand with showdown value and doesn't seem to like folding much.

3. Because of #2, we have to think that the EP guy is going to be at least a little wary of bluffing into this pot. Even donkies have a sense that it's harder to bluff two people than one, and can have enough of a sense of hand-reading to put at least one of us on a decent hand the vast majority of the time.



So what interested me about the hand is not the fact that MP's overcall makes it less likely that we have the best hand. I think we're beating MP well of 90% of the time. My question is how much less likely is EP to be raising a worse hand because MP is in the pot?


Just a small addition. I'm interested in continued discussion.

Also, I'm interested again how this stuff changes at the different limits.