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Old 07-21-2005, 05:57 PM
nomadtla nomadtla is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Open Till Midnight
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Default Re: UI overcards--check the turn?

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I didn't know overcards were so severely discounted. (Disclosure: I'm holding off on SSH and the other books until I get to .5/1 at least.) Does this have me winning the hand 12% of the time? That seems counterintuitive. Or is that added to the chances of winning with K-hi?

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First:
The reason overcards are so discounted is in small stakes (esspescially micros) players will play K7, KJ, Q7, QJ and even sometimes K4, and Q4 even for a raise so you're reverse dominated. Or you hit your card but are allready against 2pair or a set. Or you hit K or Q on turn but are drawn out on on the river to a straight etc.
Second:
Every second you put off reading SSH is a second you are -ev(loosing money). No lie I used to think like you that I would get it when I made higher limits, but I have been "healed" of this falacy thanks to the 2+2 micro forum.
Third:
With 4 people in the pot (you+3) you need to win +25% of the time (for it to be for value) or be sure that folds will increase your chances of winning (which I don't think they do here except maybe folding an A-high assuming no ones paired). You have maybe a 7% chance of winning this pot (and I am being very generous with this #) and against four I think almost no chance of taking it down right here so no fold equity.
Fourth:
The chances K-high takes it in a four way pot (when they all called the flop) is so minimal it can't really be quantified.

I'm not trying to be harsh by any means, we're all here to beat the fishes. This is constructive criticism and I hope it is taken as such. And if I'm out of line on my math, or in any other way then please correct me.
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