Re: Doomsday Thereom
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I am not sure I have spelled 'thereom' correctly, oh dear. Please don't hold it agaisnt me if it is wrong. I am not sure I have spelled 'thereom' correctly, oh dear. Please don't hold it agaisnt me if it is wrong.
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I know what you mean, when I was writing my Maths Phd, I never could spell theorem right and had to always correct with a spelling checker afterwards. 2+2 really should incorporate a spelling checker into the forum to help people like us. Alternately you could get hold of a word processor with a spelling checker in (should not be too expensive) and write your posts there before copying them into a 2+2 post, that’s what I do anyway. Hope I’ve helped.
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There is a 50% probability N<x/(.5)
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This is obvious if you think about it.
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And if x=50 billion then there is a 50% probability that N<100 billion.
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Yes, of course that’s true. Its also just as true that if x=7 then there is a 50% probability that N <14. Of course this is academic as there is no way you can know what your x is.
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7% chance I will be alive when the last person to ever be born will be born.
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To get this conclusion you have assumed that your personally number is 50 billion. It is this assumption that produces your conlusion that the end of the human race is close. To make it clearer you have said.
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1. There is a finite number of humans ever to live in this Universe. Call this number N.
2. If you give each human to ever exist a number from 1 to N in order of when they were born, the number we and every one else has recieved (around 50 billion for us I am guessing) was random, it could have just as easily been 1 or N or 50 or 51 etc.
3 My number is 50 million
1,2 and 3 imply 7% chance I will be alive when the last person to ever be born will be born
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This is perfectly reasonable. Most people’s number will be within an order of magnitude of N. so if N=100 millioin 90% of people will have a number greater than 10 million. If N = 10000000000000 million, then 90 % of peoples number will be greater than 1000000000000 million.
As I do not believe you number is 50 million I do not think what you say is particularly relevant.
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Another interesting thought, suppose you are Adam (you know, Adam and Eve) you are number 1 and Eve is number 2,
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I don’t know Adam and Eve. However I will just remind you that you assumed that your 'numbers' were random not ordered.
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Does a smart chimpanzee not count while a less intelligent human count? … lost of other similar stuff.
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You defined the axioms. You can make whatever restrictions you like, which of course will be reflected in how relevant your results are to the real world.
Why do I feel I have just wasted half an hour of my life.
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