Re: Curiosity killed the cat, or did it?
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I haven't seen him make any big bluffs like this, but I obviously thought it was possible which is why I called.
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Here's the problem. Its ALWAYS possible. Nature of the beast. We ALL fold to bluffs every day. Don't feel bad about folding to a good bluff, give your opponent credit and stop taking it personally.
You have to estimate the CHANCE its a bluff, then look at the pot odds. Instead of saying to yourself 'it could be a bluff', say 'it could be a bluff - what percentage of the time does villian bluff here?' - you NEED a number, even if its only a very rough estimate.
Calling hit pot sized bets turn and river would need his bluff % to be about 33% to be EV neutral, which is ridiculous for anything but a maniac. If you've never seen someone bluff big in a sesssion, 10% AT MOST is a good assumption. And he fired on turn AND river, so frankly its about 5% now. You would need his river bet to be joke sized to make it worthwhile on the reasoning 'he could be on a bluff'.
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