Re: Odds of a major downswing?
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- having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening)
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...just so the OP sees this. This looks much more accurate than the 1% suggested. I'm old and slow. I have to be honest, I have a tough time figuring out those columns myself.
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Actually Blue Feet, you were right. The OP wanted to know the percent chance that a "true" 15% ROI player would drop 11 or more buyins over a set of 300 SNG's and that works out to about 2.5%.
Here are the chance that a 15% player (with a finish distribution of 12.5/13/12.5) will lose money over various quantities of SNG's:
50 25%
100 16%
500 1.1%
1000 < 0.1%
a 10% ROI player (12/12/12.5)
50 32%
100 24%
500 6.2%
1000 1.4%
a 20% ROI player (13.4/13/13)
50 19%
100 10%
500 0.2%
1000 almost 0... over 10K simulations the worst result over 1000 SNG's for a true 20% ROI player was +2% ROI.
rvg
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