Re: Odds of a major downswing?
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The chances of having a 10 buyin drop over 300 is pretty close to 100%, if not 100%.
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It depends on which question you are asking - having a 10 buyin drop during the course of 300 SNG's is one thing (which the 15% ROI player has about a 95% chance of happening) but being down 10 or more buyins after 300 SNG's is a different question.
My App doesn't really give you results like that without doing a little work so first you need to convert -10 over 300 to an ROI so that would be about -3%. The chance of this 15% ROI player getting -3% ROI or worse over 300 SNG's is about 2.5%.
rvg
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My comment was referring to playing over an infinite sample, which is how you should be viewing your poker results, not in self-selected samples.
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