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Nobody's folding a pot this huge on the flop.

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I disagree.

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I guess saying 'nobody' is a logical fallacy, but I think people will continue to peel very often. What hands do you expect them to peel getting ~16:1 on the first bet but fold for ~11:1 on the raise?

Consider the risk vs. the reward: if the 2 guys behind us won't call 2 cold on the flop, then they definitely won't on the turn. So we lose their two flop 2SBs. Best case scenario, we get 5 more SBs on the flop alone if the other guy caps his 7, and the bloated pot has the potential to make us several more BBs as well on the turn/river.

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J9, J8, 86, AQ, QJ, KQ, any two suited broadways.

This is just a SHORT list of all the hands that peel getting 16:1 but fold getting 10.5:1 in the face of a 3bet flop on a paired rainbow board.

All of these hands have a chance of picking up draws or making hands on the turn that they would deem playable in the face of action on the turn.

Your calculations also didn't take into account the amount of times you slow down 7x, where x isn't T or A.

What it comes down to is the amount of times you think the two behind you on the flop are coming anyway. Considering between you and SB you've pretty much crippled the deck, I'm happy to get my 2 extra SB and hope they make a hand\draw on the turn.


On a two flush board, I'm happy to go crazy. On a rainbow, with crappy relative position, we'll have to agree to disagree. Enough said.