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Old 11-29-2005, 12:00 PM
jt1 jt1 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 119
Default Re: Live 10/20 Question

First off, I mis-spoke. I meant 5-1 to catch his draw, not his flush. I've edited the original post

Secondly, if button has a better heart draw then hero is SOL. Sets aren't beat by higher sets very often and flushes don't get beat by better flushes very often. The reverse implied of a small suited connector will always be greater than a small pp but in this situation the reverse implied is limited to getting the draw and not hitting and getting beat by a better flush. Still not enough to fold.

Your hand was a good fold.


EDIT: In the interest of being as specific as possible: The odds of villian having AKh, AQh, AJh, or KQh, or KJh are 5/66. And I'd say that either 1) limiting villian to just 66 possible raising hands is too conservative or 2)saying that at a loose passive table both KQh and KJh would raise is too liberal. Whichever one it is, that ratio is probably too generous. The real problem comes from villian having the Ace of hearts and subject to drawing out on you if you hit a flush on the turn. But, though, a greater threat, it's won't ruin your expected value.
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