[Harv72b]

Let's take this a step further, shall we? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

If you're going to take this line and call the river bet from time to time with a weak holding, then you also need to bet the river from time to time with the same weak holding. And likewise, you need to check/raise the river with a strong holding every so often. Basically, you want to strike the fear of God into anyone who enters a pot against you, because you never want to be predictable in your play. Especially not HU in the higher small stakes/mid stakes limits.

In this scenario, the flop brings two obvious draws which the villain might call down with and then bluff at the river with if checked to (although this is a pretty bad board to bluff against a PFR on). He could have J9s (a 27 VPIP guy will definitely coldcall with that hand, particularly if he's shown some semblence of positional awareness) or KJ for the OESD. He could have two clubs for the flush draw. The problem here is that only the flush draw, assuming he didn't pair a Q or K on the way, is behind you after the K hits on the river. So you're basically check/calling here in the hopes that he's going to bet either a busted flush draw or a worse pocket pair. While I agree with what you've said about opponents' willingness to bet weak hands vs. borderline ones on the river, I don't think it happens all that often on this particular board vs. that opponent. I think you can pretty safely check/fold this one, getting only ~6.5:1 on the river call. If the pot or your pair were a little bigger (say JJ), then I'd be a bit more willing to check/call.

Note that you are also hoping that this villain will be aggressive enough to bet the river with a busted flush draw after being passive enough not to raise the flop with the same draw and position.