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Old 12-24-2005, 01:45 AM
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Default Re: Pocket Aces and a beginner

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Regardless of if the guy is a postflop maniac or not, you should consider the CO's hand and all previous action before being happy about putting in 4 bets on the river to see a showdown with one pair.

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Is it possible that CO value raises this river based on the previous hands he's watched the maniac play, with a hand worse than Aces.


The pot is something like 23BB when it gets to Hero on the river.
CO could be trying to shut Hero out of the GIGANTIMUNGONORMOUS pot and get it HU with maniac on the river.

IMO CO is raising with a worse hand than Hero more than the required 9% of the time for Hero to make the call.


EDIT:
AA - 1 combo
KK - 6 combos
AQ - 6 combos
QQ - 3 combos
TT - 3 combos
99 - 3 combos
KQ?

I don't think the hands we lose to will ever be 10x the number of hands we beat. And if we know for a fact that it is going to 4 bets on the river, I still think it's a tough call.

To the OP: Once you call the first time on the river, you have to call the second time round. The pot is SOO huge that you would have to be 95% sure you were beaten to fold here. I don't think you could ever be that sure when there is an unknown and a maniac involved.
Calling and finding out you lost is way more +EV than folding and finding out you would have won.
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