Re: Very Familiar
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I think a conservative estimate would've been around 50% of the time.
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WAY too low crunchy. I've played a few hands in these 2/4 games, and my 3 bets on the flop give me free cards extremely often. 85% is conservative.
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meh - I'm no stranger to the Party 2/4 either and I don't agree. 85% may be close - it's not, IMO, conservative.
I just don't think you give can yourself that high of a percentage against unknown opponents. Maybe if you had some decent reads on 1 or two of the players - but not readless against the field. There are plenty of 2/4 players who will cap this for fun from the SB/BB. There's also plenty of 2/4 players who will donk the turn if they hit any pair (some with a small PP).
Getting a free (cheap) turn card is great but, it's not the only thing that needs to go right in the rest of the hand. I just don't see how we can justify continuing given our lack of knowledge on our opponents coupled with our relatively weak holding.
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